A Devastating Nor'easter is beginning to take shape Over Florida at this time. Atmospheric Dynamics are going to come together to Bomb out this Low pressure with in the next 15 hours. The Center of Circulation will pass about 30 miles off the Coast of Kitty Hawk by Late tonight. After that the Low pressure will continue to strengthen as it moves to the NNE, by Thursday night it will make it's next very close near miss of the Coast of Cape Cod. At this point Hurricane force winds are expected with Winds expected to gust near 85 mph from the ENE, to the NNW. The Bad side of the storm will be in the Warm sector where Waterspouts are likely to develop. Snow amounts could range up to 1 to 2 feet over Atlantic City, Dover Del., and parts of Kitty Hawk. A Very strong upper level Jet will allow this storm to rapidly intensify as it moves up to 50 mph to the NNE. A Blizzard Warning means that Very strong winds combined with heavy snow will lead to Whiteout conditions and lead to Severe travel delays. Get the Latest Updates from my YouTube Weather channel and National Weather Service office near you. I'll Either have a live update or a video this afternoon but i'll have a Update no matter what. Stay tuned to my Weather channel to get the latest. Please don't forget to Subscribe, Like, and Comment. to Get up to the Latest forecast. My YouTube Chanel Fan Page: = My Facebook Page: My Twitter Page: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 600 Sub. Prize


Looks like the GFS models are slowly backing off on the strength of that Southern Plains system that might bring in the snow doesn't look to be as heavy. But the GFS models are not backing off on that extreme frigid cold air coming out of Canada which may have record low temperatures of -32 to -40 degrees around North Dakota and parts of Minnesota. Please do not Forget to Subscribe, Like, and Comment to get latest U.S Weather Outlooks, Winter Outlooks, Weather Lectures, Hurricane updates, Severe Weather Updates, Wildfire Updates and Much, Much more !!! My YouTube Fan Page: My Twitter Page: My Facebook Page:


While there will be a Marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow and Sunday witch may include Quarter sized hail, Strong winds, and maybe a EF-1 to EF-2 Tornado, but i do not see any snow across the U.S until next weekend as a Zonel flow pattern returns. Warm weather will be on the return for Tomorrow for much of the West. But with a developing upper cutoff Low pressure system, Thunderstorms could be possible across the Sierra Mountains beginning Monday next week. Some of the thunderstorm could produce Dangerous lightning, Heavy Downpours, and Small hail. If your Familiar with the Southwestern Monsoon, this is a bit of that. If your camping just be aware that skies could turn stormy each afternoon for Monday through Friday. But Across much of the West will be just Much warmer than normal, about 10 to 30 degrees above average because of Upper level rigging building across the west. But The Below average temperatures could linger all the way into Next weekend for the Central U.S, Northeast, Southeast. But not Cold enough for snow at least. For more Latest weather updates, please Don't forget to click that red Subscribe Button, Hit that like button, and Leave a comment below. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Visit my Youtube Channel channel page & Subscribe Visit my Facebook Page: Visit my Twitter Page: Visit Tropical Tidbits: Visit the National Weather Service: Check out WSV3 - Professional PC Weather forecasting Software


Grand Solar Minimum maybe coming next year as the Sun enters a 100 year grand solar minimum cycle. The sunspot number may drop to near 0 to 2 by Mid Summer of next year. Solar Wind is strongest during a Low sunspot number. So therefore if any Auroras develop the kp index is likely to be lower than 3 over a 3 day period. The Sun's Disk has been blank for 7 days straight so far. More Details are in the video. Please Don't forget to Subscribe, Like, and Comment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Support my YouTube Channel: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: Space Weather: Northern Lights Forecast: Sils:


Latest Evaluation of SST (Sea Surface Temperatures) Show that strong Trade wind anomalies have persisted East of the International Dateline for nearly 2 weeks, This has lead to a decrease in warming in the Eastern Pacific, When Trade winds are strong, This allows cooler water upwelling to occur in the Eastern Pacific. So Far this July there have been no signs of a weakening of the trade winds. Latest CFS models do see a possible weakening, Slacking of the Trade winds by the end of July or Early August. When Trade winds weaken, Warm Water from the West Pacific is allowed to slosh eastward and that's how El Nino is born, But wait were missing a few other weather variables, Upper level winds at 30,000 feet and increased convection must occur for a true El Nino Signal to be declared. El Nino is not a Weather system, but is a Climate phenomenon that can affect the entire globe, not just in one area but the entire globe. Enjoy the Show 😁 Winter Outlook Section - Skip to 13:36 Please Subscribe, Drop a Like, and Leave a Comment Below to get the very Latest Detailed weather updates near you on a Daily Basis, It's quite awesome. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Subscribe & Visit my YouTube Page: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: Tropical Tidbits:


Hurricane Lane timelapse as the hurricane develops until in begins to dissipate. Hurricane Lane reached category 5 intensity on August 22, 2018. Hurricane Lane is currently a weakening tropical cyclone affecting the Hawaiian Islands. It was recently the strongest hurricane in the central Pacific since Ioke in 2006, and the first Category 5 Pacific hurricane since Patricia in 2015. The twelfth named storm, sixth hurricane, and fourth major hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, Lane originated from a tropical wave that began producing disorganized thunderstorm activity several hundred miles off the southern coast of Mexico on August 11. Over the next four days, the disturbance gradually strengthened amid favorable weather conditions and became a tropical depression early on August 15. Twelve hours later, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Lane. Gradual strengthening occurred for the next day and a half which resulted in Lane reaching hurricane status by August 17, which was followed by rapid intensification to reach its initial peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane on August 18. On August 19, Lane crossed into the Central Pacific basin, where it weakened due to increased wind shear. However, on August 20, Lane re-intensified into a Category 4 hurricane, and reached Category 5 intensity early on August 22. As Lane approached the Hawaiian Islands, it began to weaken as vertical wind shear once again increased. Hurricane Lane prompted the issuance of hurricane watches and warnings for every island in Hawaii. Beginning on August 23, Lane brought heavy rains to Hawaii County, which caused flash flooding and mudslides. Hurricane Lane is the third-wettest tropical cyclone in the United States, after Hurricane Hiki of 1950 and Hurricane Harvey of 2017. In addition, Lane is also the second-wettest tropical cyclone in Hawaii, surpassed only by Hiki. A maximum of 45.80 inches (1,163 mm) of rain was recorded at Waiakea-Uka and Piihonua on August 25. Please Consider on Subscribing to my youtube channel: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: Join my Discord Server today:


GFS Models are becoming more consistent with a 2 to 4 day period of Slight to Enhanced risk for Severe weather beginning on Saturday next weekend. Shear looks to be Moderate, Lift looks to be High, Instability looks to be High, and Moisture looks to be High. This is what you would say name SLIM Shear, Lift, Instability, Moisture. The Main threat this far out look to be moderate with Golf Ball sized hail, Heavy rain, Damaging winds of 60 mph, Frequent lightning, and EF-3 to EF-5 tornadoes. This is on my to watch list as this could cover 500 to 1 thousand square miles. But another that i forgot to show in the video is across the West with a Upper level low that could trigger Showers & Thunderstorms for the Sierra with some of those storms possibly spilling down the west slope into the Central Valley Thaat upper level Low may also bring Well below normal temperatures for Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday the following week. Please Consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a Comment to get the very latest weather updates on a daily basis. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Subscribe & Visit my YouTube Weather Channel: Visit Ethan B. Channel & Subscribe: Visit my Facebook Page: Visit my Twitter Page: Visit my Instagram Page: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tropical Tidbits: Watch my Live Weather Data Streaming from Acampo, CA -station/dashboard?ID=KCAACAMP11 history WSV3 - Professional PC Weather Forecasting Software:


Join me live Discussing the Tropics across the Atlantic alsi i'll be discussing on why the Atlantic will remain quiet for the next 2 weeks. Feel free to Use the Super chat during my live streams. You can Contact me via. Check out my YouTube Channel & Subscribe Facebook: Twitter: Instagram Page: Thanks for all of your Support everyone, Your Awesome.


Latest Sea Surface Departures still continue to show a failing developing El Nino at this time. Trade winds have remained at normal strength East of the dateline over a 4 week period. The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) has been in a Negative phase since the End of July but not Negative enough for El Nino Thresholds which has to be -7 for 3 consecutive months for a El Nino to be Declared. El Nino is not a storm, but is a global pattern that disrupts the jet stream. Much more Details are in the video below. Skip to 13:45 for Preliminary Winter Forecast 2018 - 2019 Please Consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a comment. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Subscribing to my YouTube Channel: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: Tropical Tidbits:


Tropical Storm Daniel has been Downgraded to a Depression with winds now at 35 mph as in continues to move to the NW at 9 mph. But there's something much bigger brewing with a coupler of tropical waves. The next wave has a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within 5 days This one is somewhat a concern because it's developing a bit further east & south, giving it more fuel for development through this week. If a tropical depression forms, it would be on Thursday this week. A 2nd tropical wave could develop as early as Friday June 29 which could become the biggest monster. The Latest GFS Models show that lowest pressure could drop to as low as 908 millibars whitch = to a Category 5 hurricane, A Massive 195 mph hurricane. I will most likely have more details on this on Thursday this week as model confidence increases. There's no Threat to the Mexico Coast with the next 2 tropical waves expected to develop. But instead Rough wave and Rip currents are likely. I will keep you guys updated on the Model Outcome over the next week. For more Hurricane Updates, Weather updates, and Much more. Please Consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a Comment. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe & Check out my YouTube Weather Channel: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: National Hurricane Center: Tropical Tidbits: Saharan Air Layer: Physical Oceanography Windy map:


The GFS & ICON Weather forecasting models are lining up and agreeing on a Likelihood for a very strong potentially life threatening storm system to bring Heavy snow and Blizzard conditions to the Dakota's, Severe weather across the Southern Plains & Damaging desert winds that are expected to Blow Dust and Sand. A Area of surface low pressure is expected to develop Wednesday night across the Nevada basin with a pressure value of 998 millibars. Winds look to be Gusty with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. But during the overnight hours Wednesday night into Thursday the Low will continue to rapidly deepen to 975 to 979 millibars with Winds expected to be very strong across all of Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, & Colorado. Strongest winds expected to develop across Eastern Half of Arizona, and all of New Mexico. Winds on Thursday are likely to range from the WSW at 35 to 55 mph with Gusts up to 65 to 75 mph, Peak gusts could reach 80+ mph. Sustain winds of 40 to 60 mph with gusts up to 85 mph are likely across the higher elevations with peak gusts nearing 90 to 100 mph. Winds at this magnitude are likely to Cause Widespread Blowing Dust with patchy blowing dust likely, Moderate property damage likely, with Power outages likely. Semi trucks should not drive Thursday or Friday due to extreme winds that could flip over simi tracks. This Storm will likely produce 1 to 2 feet of Snow across Minneapolis Minnesota with around a foot of snow possible for South Dakota. If the models keep the predictions this strong, This could be the strongest storm so far this winter season or even 2 years. This storm will likely produce a Enhanced risk for severe weather with Damaging winds, Large hail, and Heavy rain being the main threats. Tornadoes look to be on the possible side with Tor-con values at a 2 to 5 (20 to 50% chance in a 50 mile radius) but that number could be climbing up a tad bit more as this become more likely. All i gotta say is get Flash lights and Candles ready due to the possibility of Power outages, make sure you have food predard. For more information Please consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a comment as this could be a very big deal. I will Repeat get Prepared now for the worst. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Don't forget to visit & Subscribe to my Youtube channel: Visit my Facebook Page: Visit my Twitter Page: Tropical Tidbits:


Looks like the U.K will Stay at Average to Below average when it comes down to Temperatures. Winds could be Fairly strong with Some storms coming from the West with Winds from the W and SW at 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Snow doesn't look to be the issue as the storms will stay just warm enough for only a cold rain to fall. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Visit my YouTube Page & Subscribe: Visit my Facebook Page: Visit my Twitter Page: Visit my Instagram Page:


The Eastern Tropical Pacific has been active with Tropical storm after Tropical storm developing and at this time we have 2 active systems, Tropical Storm Miriam, and Tropical Depression 16E. While Subtropical ridging expected to build in to the Northeast of Miriam and a upper level low to the West over the next 3 to 5 day's will likely help turn Miriam Northward starting Wednesday night and hopefully missing the hawaiian completely. Latest GFS & ECMWF models both predict a Strong Tropical storm when it reaches its peak. While i'm watching Miriam closely, i'm also monitoring Tropical Depression 16E which has a chance of strengthening to a Major Hurricane later on this week and latest model show a Direct Hit on the ECMWF model in 10 days while the GFS show 16E passing safely 600 miles NE of the Hawaiian islands. More Details are in the Video. Please Consider on Subscribing to get the latest Tropical forecast & much more. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Consider on Subscribing, Link is listed below: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: Tropical Tidbits: Wind Shear (East Pacific) =


A Upper level Low moving out of the West will enter the Southern Plains by Friday morning. This upper level low will bring Moderate levels of instability which will help provide vertical thunderstorm development beginning Friday morning across the Border of Texas & New Mexico. However there does look to be Low levels of Tropical moisture for Friday's thunderstorm development. The main impacts look to be damaging 60 mph winds, Quarter sized Hail, and Dangerous Cloud to ground Lightning, The tornado threat looks to be rather Low only for Friday. But on Saturday Dew points look to increase to the upper 50's to Lower 60's for Louisiana, Southern Texas, and Arkansas and therefore there's going to be a Slight risk for Severe weather that may include a EF-1 or EF-2 tornado threat as moisture will increase with instability. But all eyes are on deck for a much more significant Severe weather outbreak for Thursday afternoon through Saturday next week that may include a much higher threat for Tornadoes but it's too far out to tell rather or not will the atmosphere come together for a Enhanced to Moderate risk for severe weather. Only time can tell at this point for next week's outbreak should it really develop, we'll have to wait and see. When it comes to the Western weather though. High pressure looks to build in starting Friday which will increase temperatures this weekend into the Mid 70's to Low 80's then will peak in the Low 80's to Mid 80's by Monday. Cool weather looks to return starting Tuesday next week as a Upper level low drop down across the High desert increasing a onshore breeze. For more Weather Updates for the Entire U.S Please consider on Subscribing. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I Recommend on Visiting my Youtube Channel & Subscribe: Visit my Facebook: Visit my Twitter: Visit my Instagram: Tropical Tidbits: Intellicast: WSV3 - Professional PC Weather Forecasting/Tracking Software


Lane remains a powerful hurricane this morning, with a well- developed warm eye completely surrounded by persistent cold cloud tops. Morning visible satellite imagery also depicts a well-defined eye. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron is flying through Lane again this morning, and confirms that the hurricane has intensified further since their previous visit on Monday evening. The central pressure has dropped around 10 mb during the past 12 hours, with the most recent dropsonde in the eye finding 941 mb. Peak SFMR winds measured so far have been 134 kt, and max flight level winds are 143 kt. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 6.5/127 kt to 7.0/140 kt, with the latest ADT current intensity at 6.4/125 kt. Based primarily on the aircraft data, the initial intensity for this advisory is increased to 135 kt, which makes Lane a high-end Category 4 hurricane. Lane is moving a bit slower this morning and appears to have wobbled slightly to the WNW during the last few hours, and the initial motion for this advisory is 280/8 kt. Lane has been moving westward to the south of a mid-level ridge during the past several days. However, this will be changing soon, as Lane begins to round the western periphery of this ridge and moves into an area of relatively light steering flow. This is expected to allow the cyclone to gain latitude as its forward speed diminishes. The hurricane is forecast to turn gradually to the west-northwest through tonight, then to the northwest Wednesday through Thursday, as it moves between the mid-level ridge to the east and a developing upper-level trough to the northwest of Hawaii. After this point, the track and intensity forecasts remain highly uncertain, as the majority of the reliable model guidance brings Lane very close to the islands with potential interaction between Lane and the mountainous terrain of the islands. This interaction combined with increasing vertical wind shear leads to a weakened Lane being steered to the west by the low-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast has been nudged slightly to the north or closer to the islands from 36 through 72 hours, into better agreement with the multi-model consensus HCCA. Water temperatures along the forecast track will be sufficiently warm to support a major hurricane, and thus any significant weakening before Lane draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands will likely be due to increasing wind shear. In the short-term through the next 24 hours or so, shear is expected to remain light, and expect only slow weakening as the cyclone moves over slightly cooler SSTs and may be impacted by eyewall replacement cycles. At 72 hours and beyond, the forecast anticipates a sharp increase in shear as Lane moves closer to the large upper trough to the northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. The new intensity forecast is close to the previous forecast, and although it remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, it generally follows the trends presented by the multi-model consensus IVCN and HCCA. In addition to continued storm penetrations by the Hurricane Hunters of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, the NOAA G-IV will once again be sampling the larger scale environment today to help with initialization of the forecast models. For latest Updates & Live discussions on Major/Super hurricane Lane. Please consider on Subscribing Dropping a Like, and Leaving a comment. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Please Consider on Subscribing to my YouTube channel: Please Consider on Subscribing to Oppenheimer Ranch Project: Major Hurricane Lane visible satellite imagery: Microwave Satellite imagery: National Weather Service, Hawaii: Aircraft Recon Data: Weathernerds: Tropical Tidbits: Windshear: Windy Map:


The Storm is already beginning to cause issues across the Northern Plains with Moderate snow at this time. According to the Storm prediction Center there is a Moderate risk for Severe weather today, this means EF-4 to EF-5 tornadoes, Large Hail the size of Softballs, Damaging 80 mph winds, Heavy rain that is likely to cause flash flooding, and Dangerous Lightning. Winds across the North and Central plains look to range around from the NNE to NW at 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph. Blizzard conditions are expected as Heavy snow and Wind combination to create Blowing snow reducing visibilities as low as 5 to 25 feet at times. Snow amounts look to range at 1 to 2 feet. For Latest Weather information Please Consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leave a Comment below. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Visit my Youtube Channel & Subscribe: Visit my Facebook Page: Visit my Twitter Page: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tropical Tidbits: National Weather Service: Weather Underground - WunderMap


In this Hurricane Outlook & Discussion i'm monitoring Florence which is fighting 35 kt wind shear but with plenty of moisture, hurricane Florence is likely to maintain a Category 1 hurricane through the next 3 day while it passes through a very hostile environment. After day 4 & 6 high pressure is expected to rebuild across the Northeast but how far does the eastern toe of the ridge extend is a very tricky question and how favorable is the environment for re-strengthening of Florence. If the ridge builds quicker then the Florence to the SE the track could aim for North Carolina before a very close encounter to the right occurs is this pattern set up. There's a 1 in 100% chance that this would set up but if it does a Category 3, 4, or 5 is possible & Hurricane Florence could be the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. More Details are in the video. Please Don't forget to Subscribe to get the very Latest videos ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Subscribe, The link is below: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: Atlantic Wide Satellite Imagery: Microwave Satellite imagery Tropical Tidbits: National hurricane Center: Saharan Air Layer (SAL) = Total Precipitable Water Vapor:


A Persistent Low will be returning across the West bringing rounds of Rain, Wind, Snow, and Cold temperatures by Early next week. In the Meantime a Marginal to Enhanced risk for severe weather is expected for Louisiana, Southern Arkansas, and Mississippi. Since the Storms will likely fire off in the late afternoon, The Tornado threat will be limited to EF-1 to EF-3 with a isolated EF-4 tornado possible. But the Main impacts will be Large hail, Damaging winds, and Heavy rain with the storms. While the upper level winds don't look to be conducive for a rapid intensifying surface low, Early Monday morning or Sometime Monday the NW upper level jet will change direction and increase out of the WSW and therefore the Surface low has an opportunity to Rapidly intensify to where the Pressure in the center could fall around 20 millibars in a 24 hour period. This is why the Nor'easter is on my watch list for a Cyclogenesis deepening low as soon as it moves of the North Carolina Coast. It's still very uncertain where the Low will move and therefore Snow totals are still to be announced. For more on the Stormy West, Severe Weather possible this weekend, and the possibility for a Nor'easter to develop. Consider on Hitting that Subscribe button, Drop a like, and Leave a Comment in the section below. I'll have 2 Updates tomorrow & Sunday, with each update scheduled for Monday through Friday this coming week in the Afternoon/evening time frame. This schedule may change. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Check out my YouTube Page & Please Subscribe: Check out my Facebook Page: Check out my Twitter Page: Check out my Instagram Page: Check out the Weather Software I use: My Live Weather Data streaming on Weather Underground: Visit Tropical Tidbits:


Invest 95E is has became organized since yesterday witch promoted the National Hurricane Center to increase the chance of development to 70 percent. Strong Trade winds and cooler waters will make the invest rather difficult to become a strong Tropical storm while it forecast to turn WNW by Monday next week into cooler water. The invest is not forecasted to make Landfall anytime soon. The Eastern Pacific will remain the active spot over the course of 1 to 2 weeks as the Monsoon trough remains very convergent. The Atlantic Basin will remain very quiet as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is at Moderate levels of Dusty, dry air which means any Tropical Waves moving off of africa will likely fall apart as this waves will bombard the Dusty, dry Saharan air coming off of Northern Africa. The Bermuda High will remain the Dominant future over the next 2 weeks meaning the Saharan Air will likely move off of Africa. Also Upper level winds look to be unfavorable for Tropical development for the next week. To get the Latest Tropical Updates & Much more !!! Please Don't forget to Smash that Subscribe Button, Hit the Like icon, and Leave a Comment below. I'm Scheduled to have another Tropical Outlook Discussion for Monday June 23, 2018 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Don't forget to Subscribe & Visit my Youtube channel: Please Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: Tropical Tidbits: National Hurricane Center: Physical Oceanography Division: Saharan Air Layer (SAL)


Hurricane Florence continues to spread out it’s Winfield causing big concerns for the Carolinas. Hurricane force winds extend about 70 to 75 miles out from the center while tropical storm force winds extend almost 200 miles out from the center. I still feel like the GFS model wants to bring down air pressure almost to 920 mbar right before it makes landfall which makes me concerned. Also the GFS model still shows Florence possibly stalling. Pretty much all you guys really need to know is that there could be up to 40 inches of rain in the isolated spots of Wilmington and the cape Hatteras area with possible 15 to almost 30 foot storm surge and 60 foot waves. There are more details in the video. Since I am doing this off my iPhone links will not be in the description unfortunately. Please subscribe to get the latest updates on major hurricane Florence with live coverage set to begin around 7 PM Pacific daylight Time this evening.


The GFS Computer model continues to show that There's going to be a Surface low that may develop along a Stationary front running SSW to NNE. Upper level Dynamics do show a rather strong Outflow channel similar to Winter storm Grayson just 4 days ago which may help the Low deepen a bit. Like I said this could be more significant then Grayson due to the threat for Freezing rain which may cause major travel issues. Please Don't Forget to Subscribe, Like, and Comment.


A Strong Upper Level Low is expected to Move into the Desert SW this Tuesday & Wednesday. With a Low level Jet expected to bring Moisture in off the Gulf of Mexico, A Dryline developing off the Dessert SW, and Substantial Instability in the 3000 to 4500 kg/J will likely bring a Likely bring a big chance for Destructive Baseball size Hail, Damaging winds of up to 70+ mph, Long lived Tornadoes exceeding EF-4 strength across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Northwestern half of Arkansas. Residents living under the threat should get prepared for Major Property damage from Flying debris. This will likely stand out to being the strongest severe weather outbreak so far this season. How evere here's that latest on the Atmospheric Dynamics leading up to this event. It's called S.L.I.M. (Shear, Lift, Instability, Moisture) and below i have a Low to Extreme ratio of my predictions of the dynamicts leading up to the event. -------------------------- Shear looks to be High Lift looks to be High Instability looks to be Very High Moisture looks to be Moderate The Skew T tell's me lot of what may happen in the Atmosphere. The Dry Adiabatic Lapse rate is in the negative which signifies atmospheric instability. So therefore is why i'm predicting a Enhanced to Moderate risk for severe weather for Tuesday but definitely Wednesday looks to be the worst day. For more Information leading up to this prolong period of Severe weather and the Upcoming Hurricane season. Please Consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a comment below. Just for a Reminder for Viewers that i will NOT have any Updates this Saturday or Sunday due to Family event. I will return to normal scheduled programing on Monday April 30, 2018. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Please Subscribe & Visit my Youtube channel to catch up with the latest updates: Visit my Facebook Page: Visit my Twitter Page: Visit my Instagram Page: Tropical Tidbits: WSV3 - Professional Weather Tracking/Forecasting Software:


The GFS models are coming together for a impressive Snowstorm this weekend of February 3. Snow amounts look to range 6 to 12 inches for much of the Northeast and Central Northern plains. More snow is possible by Monday night with additional Snow amounts 10 Day snowfall total may amount up to 2 feet for parts of Ohio, and State New York. The West will stay rather Warm and very Dry for this time of year. Full detail is provided in the video. !!!!!!! IMPORTANT UNEXPECTED NOTICE TO VIEWERS !!!!!!!! Due to significant internet issues i'm currently facing tonight. The Weather description will be very limited tonight, But should be in full detail for tomorrow evening's update. Please Consider On Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a comment to get the best Detailed and Accurate weather updates fresh from the Weather models. Please Consider on Subscribing to my YouTube channel Link posted below My Facebook Page: My Twitter Page:


Norman appears to have weakened over the past several hours. Cloud tops around the eye have warmed, and the eye itself has become less distinct. Several recent microwave overpasses show little indication that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway, but it is possible that our ability to observe such a cycle is limited by the resolution of the available instruments. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies have decreased and supported at most an intensity of 125 kt at 0600 UTC. Given the continued warming of cloud tops near the inner core since that time, the initial intensity has been lowered to 120 kt. Due to the lower initial intensity, the intensity forecast has also been lowered slightly, particularly for the first 24 h. Gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period, though larger short-term fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles are possible, if not likely, while Norman remains a hurricane. By the end of the forecast period, a faster weakening rate is anticipated as Norman is forecast to move over cooler SSTs and reach a drier environment. The NHC forecast is near the center of the intensity guidance envelope and near the intensity consensus. The hurricane has continued to move west-southwestward at 8 kt. Almost no change has been made to the track forecast, which remains close to the various consensus aids. The hurricane should turn westward, and then west-northwestward, as it is steered primarily by a deep-layer ridge to the north for the next 5 days. With the exception of the UKMET global model, which is an outlier to the south, the global and regional dynamical models are in good agreement on the future path of Norman, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. Please Consider on Subscribing to get the very latest updates on Hurricane Norman, Tropical Depression Six, and much more !!!! Also like the video and leave a comment below. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Subscribe, Link is listed below: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: National Hurricane Center: Tropical Tidbits: Total Precipitable Water:


The Atlantic Basin has been rather quiet so far with only 5 names storms, But a 6th named storm maybe only 4 to 7 days away from developing off the Cape Verde islands as the Atlantic basin heads into a mild active phase. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is just about 100 miles north enough where a tropical wave coming off of Africa may spring into life. Right now 3 Weather Models, ECMWF, GFS, and FV3-GFS show a Strong tropical storm to Category 3 strength. For right now this has no threat to landfall towered the U.S but if it does i will let you all know. More Details are in the video. This area of interest has a 30% chance of developing in a 5 day period. Please Consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a comment for Latest Tropical updates & Much more other weather related content. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Consider on Subscribing, The link is below: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: North Atlantic Wind shear: = National Hurricane Center: Tropical Tidbits: Current saharan Air Layer (SAL) =


Lane continues to be a very impressive hurricane. As of the 1800 UTC analysis time, the cloud pattern had improved over the last several hours with clearing and warming in the eye, and convection becoming more symmetric around the eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB were unanimous at 6.5, and CIMSS-ADT had 6.3. A 1613z SSMIS pass showed the inner core remains very well defined, and there has been a considerable amount of lightning in the eyewall over the past several hours. In deference to the recent trends, we elected to maintain Lane at 135 kt for this advisory. Since the analysis time, the eye has cooled again somewhat and deep convection around the center has become a little more asymmetric. The initial motion has slowed a bit and is now 295/7. Lane continues to be steered toward the west-northwest by a deep layer ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone. By 36 hours, the ridge is expected begin building to the southeast and south of Lane, which will begin to impart a more northward motion through at least 48 hours. By 72 hours, the track guidance begins to show a leftward turn, as the low level circulation of Lane decouples in the face of 35 to 40 kt of shear. Exactly when this critical turn will happen is very difficult to forecast, so confidence in this portion of the track is unfortunately rather low. However, our most reliable global models, the ECMWF and GFS, suggest this may happen a little later than previously forecast. Thus, the track forecast has been shifted to the northeast between 48 and 72 hours to be in better agreement with the global models. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows that Lane is located within an area of moderate southwesterly shear. The tropical cyclone is expected to begin moving under increasing shear in the coming days which is expected to start a long-awaited weakening trend. Around 72 hours or so, the shear is expected to weaken the core of the tropical cyclone enough to initiate more rapid weakening that is shown for the remainder of the forecast period. Our intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the ECMWF. Please consider on supporting my work by smashing that Subscribe button. Don't forget to hit the like button also: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Please consider on supporting by Subscribing to my Youtube Channel: Follow me on my Facebook Page: Follow me on Twitter: Lane Visible satellite imagery: Microwave imagery on Lane: Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Tropical Tidbits: Windy Map:


Tropical Storm Fabio is Located 12.4 degrees N by 109.4 degrees W. Throughout the day today Tropical Storm Fabio was somewhat organized with non central convection but within the last 4 hours Fabio has developed a much tighter Thunderstorm core indicating That Fabio maybe rapidly strengthening. When the National Hurricane Saw this dense central convection in the center, NHC had upgrade the winds to 65 mph and pressure dropped to 996 millibars based on Satellite data. Fabio could enter a environment of rapid intensification through the day tomorrow. Latest models predict that Fabio could become a Major Hurricane Overnight Monday into Tuesday. Depending on the Environment that it enters & how long is stays in the unique environment will determine if Fabio become a Monster Category 5 hurricane, With very little to no wind shear in the upper parts of the atmosphere & 2 inflow bands, Fabio shows very classic structure which signifies fast development over the next 48 hours. There is no Threat to Mainland Mexico but High surf & strong rip current will be the main threats as high waves get produced from Fabio. By Wednesday night Fabio is predicted to leave this unique environment and is forecast to weaken rapidly by Thursday this week. For more Information on this Story. Please Consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a Comment below. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Subscribe & Visit my YouTube Channel: Follow me on Facebook: Follow Me on Twitter: Tropical Tidbits: National Hurricane Center: Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Total Precipitable Water: COD Rapid Scan Tropical Storm Fabio: =


Latest SST Observations are rising a bit more with a Value of 0.4 degrees Celsius across the El Nino region 3.4. Latest CFSv2 models still shows 3 mouth mean temperatures to reach 2.1 degrees Celsius by December, January, February. Why is El Nino important to the U.S ?? it's important because is changes out weather around our Country. During El Nino Winter the Pacific Jet Stream is extended & Amplified, bring more powerful storms into California, Desert SW, Southern States & Eastern Seaboard. The Pacific NW, Northern Plains & Great Lakes usually favor below average Rainfall & Above average Temperatures. Every El Nino episode is not the same as nearly 5 full ingredients are needed for a Classic El Nino to phase up. When Trade winds slacken or reverse Warm water piled up over indonesia is allowed to slosh eastward. More Details are in the video. For Latest Weather Updates to Come !!! Please Subscribe, Like, and Comment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Subscribe & Visit my YouTube Channel: Please Follow me on Facebook: Please Follow me on Twitter:


Satellite images indicate that Lane is trying to form a ragged eye, with an interesting mid-level mesocyclone rotating counterclockwise around the northern side of the circulation. While Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB indicate Lane is already a hurricane, values from microwave data are a bit lower, and the cyclone only recently started to potentially form an eye. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, close to the latest CIMSS SATCON figure. Further intensification is expected, and given the warm waters, low shear and moderate mid-level humidity, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility. The new NHC forecast is basically an update from the previous one, on the high side of the guidance, and could be conservative. The initial motion estimate continues at 275/11. The synoptic pattern is well defined with a subtropical ridge persisting to the north. While the ridge could weaken somewhat in a few days, a west or west-northwestward track is anticipated throughout the forecast period. The spread in the guidance has decreased somewhat since the last advisory, and the newest model consensus has basically come in right on top of the last NHC forecast. Thus the new NHC track prediction is nearly unchanged, staying close to a blend of the dynamical model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids. For Latest Updates on Tropical Storm Lane, Please Consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a Comment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Consider on Subscribing: Follow me on my Facebook Page: Follow me on Twitter: Tropical Tidbits: Total Precipitable Water imagery: National Hurricane Center: Wind Shear map East/Central Pacific: =


A Pattern change is taking place for the second half of this weekend. Above average temperatures are expected to increase to above average as a big dome of high atmospheric pressure increases in the upper & mid levels of the atmosphere. The high pressure will keep dewpoints in the Mid 70's to upper 70's for the next week in any places, The high dew points will be high enough to fire up severe thunderstorms across the North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin where a Enhanced risk and Slight risk of Large Hail, Damaging 70+ mph winds, and isolates tornadoes. The severe weather carries on into tomorrow, mainly across Wisconision. Air temperatures will likely range in the Low 70's to the upper 90's depending on where your at. Below average temperature are expected across much of the Great Basin, Desert SW, Pacific NW, and the West. Temperature will range 10 to 20 degrees below average with isolated cites 25 degrees below the average mark. It's nice to see a relief in temperatures this time of year because last year at this time we were talking all-time records across much of the west. More details are in the video. Please show your support by Subscribing, Dropping a like, and Leave a Comment. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Subscribe by clicking the link below: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: COD - U.S Wide True Color Satellite: Storm Prediction Center: Tropical Tidbits:


While Winter storm Xanto is exiting the the Northeast tonight & Tomorrow. Another Snow storm is expected to develop out of the Rockies tomorrow afternoon with Damaging WSW winds across the New Mexico area with Winds at 35 to 55 mph with Gusts up to 75 to 85 mph. Winds this strong will cause Blowing Dust & Sand as winds peak. Winds could lead to Property Damage and power outages. Semi Trucks could flip over in very strong crosswinds. This storm will also produce Moderate to Heavy Snow by Tuesday night across North & South Dakota. By Wednesday Morning, Heavy Snow and be expected over Northern Iowa, Southern Minnesota, and Southern Half of Wisconsin. Snow amounts look to range at 7 to 11 inches with isolated amounts up to 12 inches (1 foot). Please Don't forget to Click that Subscribe Button, Drop a Like, and Leave a Comment to get the latest weather updates possible. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Visit my Youtube Channel & Subscribe: Visit my Facebook Page: Visit my Twitter Page: Visit my Instagram Page: Visit my Live Weather Station Data from Acampo, CA: history Tropical Tidbits:


Super Typhoon Jabi is living up to it's reputation of strengthening to a near record monster. Latest winds 165 mph, Estimated pressure of 910 millibars is certainly a catastrophic typhoon headed for Japan. Based on my knowledge i estimate that cloudtop are extending over 60,000 feet high into the atmosphere. The eye is fairly small, only stretching about 15 miles across with Typhoon force winds extending 50 miles out from the center of the eye and tropical storm force wind extending up to 190 miles out from the center. According to some model forecasts Jebi may further intensify for the next 12 to 18 hours where winds may reach a peak of 190 mph and Air Pressure could fall to as low as 895 millibars. The reason why i say this is on how solid and smooth the cloud tops are with now banding futures in all quadrants where the most intense eye wall is, indicating no Eyewall Replacement Cycle in the near future just yet. There's very low vertical wind shear of 5 to 8 kts which means a very favorable environment for further strengthening. After it forecast peak in those 12 to 18 hours, Super Typhoon Jabi is forecast to gradually weaken as an eyewall replacement cycle is possible and increasing vertical wind shear. At this point in time most models show a possible landfall around the Central part of Japan by Tuesday morning or afternoon as a category 2 or 3. More details are in the video Please Consider on Subscribing to get latest updates. I may end up having a specule update tomorrow morning on this before i go on a 4 day vacation. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Consider on Subscribing: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: AVN Goes West Satellite on Jebi: Microwave Satellite Imagery: Tropical Tidbits:


Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Lane's overall cloud pattern has continued to improve, with several spiral bands and a more symmetrical outflow pattern having developed. Although the inner-core convection has deteriorated somewhat until just recently due to the entrainment of dry air, microwave images indicate that a well-defined inner-core and low-level eye feature has formed. Satellite intensity estimates at 0000 UTC ranged form T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB to 55 kt and 59 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively, which supported an intensity of 60 kt at that time. Since then, however, a nearly closed ring of cold-topped convection has developed near the center, so the intensity is set at 65 kt at the advisory time. Lanes has made a sharp jog toward the west-northwest during the past 6 hours, but this believed to be a short-term wobble due to the convection having recently wrapped around the north side of the low-level center. A return to a general westward motion of 280/13 kt is expected to resume shortly. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement on Lane continuing move between westward and west-northwestward direction for the next 3-4 days, followed by a turn back toward the west on day 5 as the stout subtropical ridge to the north strengthens to the east and northeast of the Hawaiian Islands and as a broad upper-level trough north of Hawaii gradually lifts out toward the northeast. The new NHC forecast track has been shifted a little to the right or north of the previous advisory track, primarily due to the more northward initial position, and closely follows the HCCA and TVCN/TVCE track consensus models. Now that a small well-defined inner core and partial eye feature have developed with a radius of maximum winds of 15-20 nmi, Lane is poised to rapidly intensity shortly, and sustain that trend for the next 36 hour so owing to the very low vertical-wind-shear and warm-SST regime that the cyclone will be moving through. Although brief intrusions of dry air may result in some flirtations in the intensity, the general trend should be for Lane to strengthen at a rate of at least 30 kt per 24 hours for the next 36-48 hours. After that, the intensity will be modulated by inner-core/eyewall fluctuations that can not be forecast accurately that far in advance. By days 4 and 5, however, a slow weakening trend is expected due to a gradual increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear. Overall, though, the new NHC intensity forecast is a little above the previous intensity forecast, and is above all of the intensity guidance. A good analog that was used for Lane's forecast was recent Hurricane Hector, which exhibited similar inner-core and outflow characteristics, and moved through similar environmental and oceanic conditions. For latest updates on Hurricane Lane, Please consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a comment below. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Please consider on Subscribing: Follow me on my Facebook Page: Follow me on Twitter: Lane IR Satellite imagery: National Hurricane Center: Tropical Tidbits: Current Wind Shear:


Lane remains a powerful hurricane this morning, with a well developed warm eye completely surrounded by persistent cold cloud tops. Morning visible satellite imagery also depicts a well-defined eye. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron is flying through Lane again this morning, and confirms that the hurricane has intensified further since their previous visit on Monday evening. The central pressure has dropped around 10 mb during the past 12 hours, with the most recent dropsonde in the eye finding 941 mb. Peak SFMR winds measured so far have been 134 kt, and max flight level winds are 143 kt. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 6.5/127 kt to 7.0/140 kt, with the latest ADT current intensity at 6.4/125 kt. Based primarily on the aircraft data, the intial intensity for this advisory is increased to 135 kt, which makes Lane a high-end Category 4 hurricane. Lane is moving a bit slower this morning and appears to have wobbled slightly to the WNW during the last few hours, and the initial motion for this advisory is 280/8 kt. Lane has been moving westward to the south of a mid-level ridge during the past several days. However, this will be changing soon, as Lane begins to round the western periphery of this ridge and moves into an area of relatively light steering flow. This is expected to allow the cyclone to gain latitude as its forward speed diminishes. The hurricane is forecast to turn gradually to the west-northwest through tonight, then to the northwest Wednesday through Thursday, as it moves between the mid-level ridge to the east and a developing upper-level trough to the northwest of Hawaii. After this point, the track and intensity forecasts remain highly uncertain, as the majority of the reliable model guidance brings Lane very close to the islands with potential interaction between Lane and the mountainous terrain of the islands. This interaction combined with increasing vertical wind shear leads to a weakened Lane being steered to the west by the low-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast has been nudged slightly to the north or closer to the islands from 36 through 72 hours, into better agreement with the multi-model consensus HCCA. Water temperatures along the forecast track will be sufficiently warm to support a major hurricane, and thus any significant weakening before Lane draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands will likely be due to increasing wind shear. In the short-term through the next 24 hours or so, shear is expected to remain light, and expect only slow weakening as the cyclone moves over slightly cooler SSTs and may be impacted by eyewall replacement cycles. At 72 hours and beyond, the forecast anticipates a sharp increase in shear as Lane moves closer to the large upper trough to the northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. The new intensity forecast is close to the previous forecast, and although it remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, it generally follows the trends presented by the multi-model consensus IVCN and HCCA. In addition to continued storm penetrations by the Hurricane Hunters of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, the NOAA G-IV will once again be sampling the larger scale environment today to help with initialization of the forecast models. Feel free to Use the Super chat during my live streams. You can Contact me via. Check out my YouTube Channel & Subscribe Facebook: Twitter: Support Oppenheimer Ranch Project: Instagram Page: Thanks for all of your Support everyone, Your Awesome.


Damaging Winds, Heavy Snow, Blizzard Conditions, Flooding, Severe weather including Large hail, Heavy Rain, Tornadoes, Dangerous Lightning will likely be unleashed by a Rapid Bombing surface Low coming out of the Rockies tonight producing wind speeds of 30 to 50 mph with gusts 40 to 65 mph. But Friday morning around 4 am CDT will begin the Worst part, Heavy Snow and wind speeds will increase and peak strength by 1 to 4 pm CDT. Winds across the Blizzard warning can expect Sustained winds of 40 to 55 mph with gusts 60 to 75 mph, Peak gusts as high as 80 mph are expected. Winds at this magnitude will lead to Moderate Property Damage, High Profile trucks & Simi's will likely not be required to drive to to Whiteout conditions with Visibilities as low as 5 to 30 feet. Snow amounts look to Range 12 to 18 inches with Isolated amounts up to 20 inches. The Latest GFS Models predict maybe 3 feet on the Northern tip of Michigan. When it comes to Severe weather. There's a Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather from Southern Part of Illinois to the South to Louisiana. The Biggest impacts will be Destructive Hail near the size of Baseballs & Softballs, Damaging Thunderstorm winds of 65 to 80 mph, Flooding rain, Dangerous Lightning, and EF-3 to EF-5 tornadoes. Some of the Storms could produce long lived tornadoes. This storm could have the most impact last seen since 2013 of that spring. I sure hope everyone is prepared for the worst. For Latest Weather updates, Please Don't forget to Subscribe, Drop a Like, and Leave a Comment. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Visit my Youtube Channel & Subscribe: Visit my Facebook Page: Visit my Twitter Page: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Check out Tropical Tidbits: National Weather Service: Weather Underground:


After lacking a distinct eye through the night, Lane regained this feature near sunrise. However, after a few hours the eye began to cloud over once again. Nevertheless, this system remains well-organized this morning, with a concentric convective ring and good outflow to the north through northeast. Outflow elsewhere is a bit restricted, a result of the 17 kt of vertical shear noted by UW-CIMSS. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 6.5/127 kt (PHFO), to 5.0/90 kt (SAB). PTWC estimated 6.0/115 kt, while ADT from UW-CIMSS was 109 kt. This is quite a wide range, possibly the result of the overnight loss and sudden reappearance of a distinct eye right around analysis time. Initial intensity is set at 110 kt for this advisory, representing a slight adjustment upward using a blend of estimates. Initial motion is 280/12 kt as Lane continues tracking just a shade north of due west along the southern flank of a large subtropical ridge. A frontal boundary far northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands is forecast to move southeast as it weakens, eroding the western portion of the ridge from day 3 and beyond. The spread in track guidance continues to be rather wide beyond 48 hours as each model handles this ridge erosion differently. However, consensus guidance continues to be most helpful. The forecast track was nudged slightly northward through 36 hours, due to initial motion, but remains quite close to the previous track from 48 through 96 hours, following TVCX consensus. Forecast points from 120 hours and beyond lie between CMCI and ECMWF solutions. GFS remains near the right edge of the guidance envelope, affecting all associated ensembles. A NOAA G-IV aircraft plans to do a synoptic sampling in the environment around the Hawaiian Islands and Lane later today. The valuable data collected during this mission will be available to better initialize the forecast models. The intensity forecast follows the logic of the previous one, only with a slightly higher initial intensity. Lane will remain over 27-28 degree C waters through the forecast period, with 10 to 20 kt of vertical shear through most of its track, at least according to the ECMWF-derived SHIPS run. Gradual weakening is forecast through the forecast period, closely following FSSE and SHIPS. The weakening curve lies just above IVCN consensus. Note that the latest CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content shows a local maximum along the track starting around day 3. If this verifies, Lane may remain stronger than anticipated beyond day 3. Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity forecast errors can be large. Please Consider on hitting the Subscribe button, Leave a like, and comment. to get the very latest on Hurricane, Wildfires, Space weather, U.S weather, Winter forests, El Nino updates, and much, much more. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Please Consider on Subscribing to my Channel: Please Consider on Subscribing to Oppenheimer Ranch Project: IR Satellite imagery of Hurricane Lane: Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Tropical Tidbits:


Once again Severe weather has flared up this afternoon. There have been 9 Tornado/Funnel Cloud sightings, more than 50 Hail reports, and more than 30 Wind reports including Wind damage. There is a Slight to Enhanced risk for Severe weather for the Rest of this Late afternoon into the evening. Tomorrow A Slight to Enhanced risk is forecasted across Parts of the Northeast including New York City, Eastern Pennsylvania, and Parts of Virginia & Maryland. The Main impact will be Large Hail, Very Heavy Rain, Frequent Lightning, Damaging winds, and Isolated EF-1 to EF-3 tornadoes. There is a Marginal Risk for Western Texas, Western Oklahoma, Western Kansas, Western Nebraska, and North Dakota & South Dakota. The Hurricane Update unfortunately will be put on Hold until the Severe weather situation clears. Thanks for Watching. Please Consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a Comment below to get the Latest Weather reports/Updates possible. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Subscribe & Visit my Youtube channel: Please Friend me or Visit my Facebook Page: Follow me on Twitter: Visit Tropical Tidbits: Purchase WSV3 Weather software for yourself:


Florence's eye became a little ragged in appearance on satellite images a couple of hours ago, but recently it has become better defined. There has also been a little cooling of the tops surrounding the eye. These features suggest that Florence is maintaining its intensity. The current intensity is kept at 120 kt, which is a little above the adjusted flight-level winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and a little below the latest SATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane is expected to move over a warm ocean and through an environment of low vertical shear. This would allow some additional strengthening until about 48 hours. From that time and up to landfall, the global models suggest some increase in shear which would cause some weakening. However, Florence is still likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane when its center crosses the coast. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the Decay-SHIPS and ICON intensity model consensus. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast should continue to steer Florence on a west-northwestward to northwestward heading until the hurricane nears the coast. The steering pattern from 72 hours and beyond becomes more complicated and uncertain. The latest GFS model run shows a mid-level ridge building over the east-central United States in 3-4 days. This temporarily blocks the forward progress of the hurricane and forces a southwesterly turn in the model run. Later in the period, the ridge rebuilds to the north of Florence allowing the system to move inland. The official track forecast is somewhat to the left of the previous NHC track, but to the right of the latest consensus predictions. It should be noted that, due to increased model spread, there is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast. It is important for users to realize that significant impacts extend well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center moves. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should complete preparations and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 28.4N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 32.9N 75.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 33.8N 76.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 34.3N 78.2W 95 KT 110 MPH.INLAND 96H 16/0000Z 34.3N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH.INLAND 120H 17/0000Z 34.9N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH.INLAND Please Subscribe for Latest Updates !!!!! Live Coverage likely to begin around 7 pm PDT or 7:30 pm PDT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Subscribe, the link is listed below: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: IR Florence Satellite imagery: Aircraft Recon Data: National Hurricane Center Advisory Products on Florence: contents


Lane has continued to rapidly intensify during the past several hours, with the eye gradually becoming better defined and the central dense overcast surrounding the eye becoming larger. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to a range of 100-115 kt, and based on this the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus technique. The hurricane currently has good outflow in all directions and there is a large area of outer banding, primarily in the southeastern semicircle. The first portion of the intensity forecast is a bit problematic. With the exception of the HMON model, none of the intensity guidance shows much additional strengthening. However, except for the possibility of some dry air wrapping around the west side of the central convection, there is no apparent reason why the current rapid intensification should stop that quickly. The intensity forecast will show 12 h more of rapid intensification, followed by a period of little change from 12-48 h. This portion of the intensity forecast lies above all of the guidance. After 48 h, Lane should start to encounter westerly shear, which should increase by the end of the forecast period and cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. This portion of the intensity forecast lies near or a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is 280/14. Lane is forecast to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward direction over the next 5 days, with some decrease in forward speed by 72-120 h as the ridge weakens slightly. There is some spread in the guidance by 120 h, with the GFS and the NAVGEM models on the north side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF model and UKMET Ensemble mean on the south side. As in the previous advisory, little change was made to the forecast track which lies close to the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models. Stay tuned for latest updates by Subscribing, Liking, and leaving a comment. Next Update is scheduled for 11:30 am PDT. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Consider on Subscribing: Follow me on my Facebook Page: Follow me on Twitter: IR4 Satellite images of Lane: Microwave imagery of Lane: National Hurricane Center: East Pacific Windshear: = Tropical Tidbits:


NOAA Has recently issued a El Nino Watch as Moderate to Strong El Nino Conditions may likely develop by Late Summer Early Autumn of this year. Already the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has turned negative. This could mean a return to Stormy weather for Parts of the U.S while others could face warm dry weather this winter. For more details Please Watch the video and Enjoy the Show. Please Consider on Subscribing, Hitting that like button, and Leaving a Comment below. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Visit & Subscribe to my YouTube Channel: Please Visit my Facebook & Friend Me: Visit my Twitter Page: Tropical Tidbits: Latest update on ENSO: PDF of Latest El Nino Update:


Latest conditions regarding on El Nino show not much change since the Beginning of July as Trade winds remained near normal for the mouth of July, However latest model guidance still shows a slacking in the trade winds set to begin this week and could persist through Mid August. Trade winds for the past 2 weeks have not been evident across the Western Pacific due to West wind Anomalies at the 850 hpa level. The MJO has been spending 95% of the Time is the Western Pacific which is very rare. More Details are in the Video. For the Latest Weather related updates, Please Subscribe, Drop a like, and Leave a comment ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Please Support my YouTube Channel by Subscring: Follow me on my Facebook Page: Follow me on Twitter: Tropical Tidbits: Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)


Latest El Nino Predictions still continue to show a Moderate to Strong event by Winter 2018-19. Trade winds are expected to slacken by the middle of this week with further weakening possible by Early next week. Weakening of the trade winds allows the warm pool of water in the western pacific to slosh it's way eastward, El Nino is born. So Far the Low level trade winds have not quite matched up with the surface winds. Even if there's some weakening of the trades, Low level trades at 2,500 feet also have to fully weaken or reverse for a extended period of negative SOI Values. More Details are in the video. Please Consider on Supporting my YouTube channel by Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a comment below. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Subscribe & Visit my YouTube channel, Link listed below: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: MJO - Madden Julian Oscillation: SOI - Southern Oscillation Index: Tropical Tidbits:


A Very strong Surface low is Triggering 60 to 80 mph wind gusts leading to Dust Storm warnings to be issued this afternoon. Infact Emergency Manager Dispatch has reported visibility as low as 10 feet at times. This Warm, Hot, Dry wind has also fanned off a few new Wildfires this afternoon has winds have been gusting well over 50 mph. As the Surface moves east overnight tonight, Gulf of Mexico moisture will meet the Cold front & Warm front tonight and develop Thundersnow where the cold air will be, Snow amounts look to range at 10 to 16 inches in the heaviest area with generally around 4 to 8 inches across Central Iowa and Southern Wisconsin. Winds will continue to Gust up to 35 to near 45 mph across much of Kansas tonight as the Surface low continues to move East. For more Latest weather Updates with 75% Accuracy. Please Consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a comment below. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Checkout my Youtube Page & Subscribe: Visit my Facebook Page: Visit m y Twitter Page: Visit Tropical Tidbits - Weather forecasting models


Tropical Activity remains very quiet at this time as the Saharan Air Layer continues, The MJO is possibly going to head into phase 6 which means most of the Tropical Convection is in the Western Pacific, over the Philippines. We'll be watching the MJO closely as it is likely to head into Phase 8 or 1 by the beginning of August is that happens. But when the MJO enters phase 1 or 8, there's usually a spike in Atlantic tropical activity. More details are in the Video. More Latest Tropical Outlooks, U.S Weather Forecasts, Winter forecasts, and much, much more !!!! Please Support my Youtube channel by Subscribing, Dropping a like, and Leaving a comment below. Important Announcements: I won't have any Youtube Uploads for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as i'll be spending time with my grandparents, I've not seen them in over a month. So give time for me to take a couple of day's off. I will return to normal Uploads Monday July 23, 2018. I may have a double upload sometime next week on a Timelapse video of Pretty sunsets. It's going to be awesome. That's all i have for Announcements. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Support by Subscribing, Link is listed below: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: Tropical Tidbits: MJO Index: PDO Index:


Florence has undergone a dramatic structural evolution just within the past 6 hours or so. Vertical shear has decreased just enough for the storm to take on a more symmetric shape, with convection developing in a ring around the low-level center, and an elongated band wrapping around to the northeastern part of the circulation. The convection has waned a little bit in intensity, however, due to the presence of dry air, and Dvorak estimates support maintaining an initial intensity of 55 kt for now. A NOAA P-3 aircraft is approaching Florence now on a research mission and should provide some useful data to better assess the storm's intensity. Recent WindSat microwave data revealed that Florence has a well-defined low-level ring in the 37-GHz channel, which tends to be a harbinger of strengthening when environmental conditions are favorable. Since vertical shear is decreasing and should be 10 kt or less by later today, and Florence is heading toward a deeper pool of warm water over the southwestern Atlantic, a significant phase of intensification is likely to begin by tonight, continuing through Tuesday or Wednesday. In fact, the official intensity forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification occurring between 24 and 48 hours from now, and Florence is expected to become a major hurricane by Monday. The HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and the Florida State Superensemble (FSSE), both of which tend to do well in these scenarios, are both near the upper end of the guidance suite, especially through day 3. Even by days 4 and 5, the HWRF, HMON, and ICON intensity consensus are near the top end of the guidance, close to HCCA and FSSE. Given the signals in the environment, and the solutions provided by these models, the NHC intensity forecast shows Florence reaching category 4 intensity by day 3 and maintains that through the end of the forecast period. Florence's longer-term motion is 265/6 kt. The cyclone appears to be slowing down as was expected, and this type of motion is likely to continue for the next 24-36 hours. In fact, the track guidance has slowed down during this period, and the updated NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one. After 36 hours, the most notable change in the models was a northeastward shift in the 06Z GFS. However, that run appears to be an outlier from the rest of the dynamical models, and its trend opposes the slight westward shift noted in the HCCA and FSSE aids. The updated NHC track forecast is therefore very close to or slightly west of the previous forecast on days 4 and 5. The exact path of Florence as it approaches the southeastern U.S. coastline will depend heavily on the position and strength of the blocking high pressure that is expected to develop north of Bermuda and extend westward over the eastern U.S., and so far there has not been much more clarity on those important details. Please Subscribe to get the very latest updates on this very serious situation. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Please Subscribe, Link is listed below: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: Latest Florence Satellite Imagery: Microwave Satellite imagery: NHC Florence advisory products: contents Tropical Tidbits: CIMSS (University of Wisconsin Live weather data) Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project (RAL)


We are looking very likely that a Very Powerful Storm system will be developing across the High Desert tomorrow with the winds being the first symptom of this Storm. Winds are expected to increase through the morning hours on Thursday with WSW winds 35 to 50 mph with common wind gusts up to 65 to 70 mph, Peak gusts up to 75 to near 80 mph. Winds this magnitude could flip over Semi trucks, Blowing Sand & Dust expected, Scattered to near Widespread power outages., and Moderate property damage likely. Thursday night is when the Snow coverage will increase across North Dakota, then will be Widespread by Friday morning for North & South Dakota. Latest snow amounts will likely range at 5 to 12 inches across North Dakota with 1 to 2 feet likely for Central Minnesota. Winds on Friday will be a very big concern across the North & Central Plains with NW winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 55 to 65 mph, peak gusts up to 70 mph likey. Wind this strong will lead to Blizzard conditions, and Power outages. Severe weather is expected to develop Friday afternoon as the Cold front collides with Humid air streaming up from the Gulf of mexico. The Main impacts from the severe weather outbreak will likely include Damaging Winds of 75 mph, Large Hail 1 to 3 inches in Diameter, Brief Heavy rain, Dangerous Cloud to ground lightning, and EF-3 to EF-5 tornadoes. There is a Enhanced risk for Severe weather on Friday afternoon. As far as very thing goes when it comes to this system, This could be the Strongest spring storm in nearly 1 to 2 years. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please visit & Subscribe to my Youtube Channel: Visit my Facebook Page: Visit my Twitter Page: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tropical Tidbits: Windy.com: Weather Underground:


Confidence is Growing on a rapidly deepening Surface low over the Rockies Thursday morning. The Low will be developing off a Upper level low just to it's west, bringing Heavy mountain snow a gusty winds across Nevada. By Thursday afternoon/evening the surface low at 977 millibars looks like will be sliding off the rockies, producing winds Across Eastern Arizona, New Mexico, and Western texas from the WSW of 45 to 60 mph with common gusts up to 75 to 80 mph higher mountain top such as Guadalupe Mountain, TX could have frequent gusts up to 95 mph with peak gusts maybe exceeding 100 mph. This looks to be the windiest storm in 2 years or possibly 3 years. Widespread blowing Sand & Dust is likely across Eastern New Mexico & Western Texas where it's open and flat with Patchy blowing Dust & Sand across much of Mexico and Arizona. Winds this magnitude will likely result in Power outages and property damage. Strongest winds are expected Thursday afternoon & Friday afternoon. This storm will produce Heavy Snow and Damaging winds on the NW & Western sides of the storm resulting in Blizzard conditions likely. Up to 1 to 2 feet look to be likely with snow amounts nearing 3 feet across Central Minnesota. Like i said this could be the strongest spring storm in 2 to 3 years. Prepare for Damaging Non- T-storm winds and Heavy Snow. The 3rd component will be the development of Severe weather just east of Dallas, TX. This severe weather could rank the highest so far this spring, most likely into Enhanced risk to Moderate risk for Large Hail, Damaging 75 mph winds, Deadly Lightning, Heavy Rain, and EF-3 to EF-5 tornadoes. When it comes down to structure of this system, This is looking awesome because winds this strong can truly shape these storm systems. I've not seen anything like this in a very, very, very long time. Let's just see what the GFS models say tomorrow. Let's just say that i've not been this excited & worried at the sametime so far this year. Please Stay on High Alert for my next Weather update tomorrow, Because i'll be talking a lot about this storm system to make sure you guys are prepared for the worst. Such as Heavy Snow, Damaging winds, Blowing debris, Heavy rain, Large Hail, Tornadoes. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Consider on Subscribing to my Youtube Channel to get the Latest weather updates. Visit my Facebook Page: Visit my Twitter Page: Tropical Tidbits: My Previous Youtube video:


The satellite presentation of Hurricane Hector continues to be very impressive. Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the US Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron embarked on their first mission into Hector and found the system to be stronger than anticipated, with surface winds from the SFMR up to 137 kt and only slightly weaker winds based on flight level data. Fixes from HFO, SAB, and JTWC all came in at 6.5/127 kt, and CIMSS ADT yielded 137 kt. Given these data, the initial intensity has been raised to 135 kt, making Hector a strong category four hurricane. Slight adjustments to the wind radii were incorporated based on input from the aircraft. Unfortunately, the Hurricane Hunter mission had to cut short due to mechanical concerns, and there will not be additional data for the afternoon. The next mission into Hector will be this evening. The initial motion of Hector is slightly north of due west (280 degrees) at 14 kt. The track guidance continues to be very tightly clustered, showing Hector on a similar track during the next 36 hours. The hurricane is expected to take a turn toward due west (270 degrees) on Wednesday and Thursday as ridging to the north of the system strengthens. This is expected to take Hector just south of the Hawaiian Islands. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected on days four and five as the mid to upper level ridge north of Hector weakens. Although the intensity forecast remains challenging, Hector is expected to remain a major hurricane as it slowly weakens during the next couple of days. Hector will remain in a low vertical wind shear environment to the south of a strong ridge aloft for the next several days. However, sea surface temperature will lower slightly, and the system will be surrounded by dry mid level air, which should lead to gradual weakening. So far, this has not had much of an effect on Hector, and the intensity forecast has lower confidence. The forecast rate of weakening is line with the dynamical models, keeping Hector slightly stronger than SHIPS during the next 72 hours. Thereafter, little change in intensity is expected as sea surface temperatures increase. While the official forecast track continues to lie to the south of the Hawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts to the portions of the state. This necessitates a Tropical Storm Watch for Hawaii County. Feel free to Use the Super chat during my live streams. You can Contact me via. Check out my YouTube Channel & Subscribe Facebook: Twitter: Instagram Page: Thanks for all of your Support everyone, Your Awesome.


Hurricane Hector is back up to a Category 4 with winds at 130 mph and air pressure back down to 952 millibars as hector continues to move west at 14 mph. deep layer ridging should help steer hector away from the islands with this general 275 degree motion. As of today a second Eye Replacement Cycle has finished and this is why more intense thunderstorm activity strengthened Hector back up to a Category 4 status range. IR Satellite also suggests that an Annular Hurricane maybe inimmint due to banding on the Microwave spectrum. Hurricane Hector is forecast to weaken below Major hurricane status as Mid level drier air increases and may consolidate the hurricane by Tuesday, This should help weaken Hector. After the near pass by the Hawaiian islands, Dryer air will lessen, and wind shear also, Therefore Hector may cross the international dateline as a Category 2 or 3. More Details are in the Video. For Latest updates on Hector and the developing tropical systems in the East Pacific, I would consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a Comment below. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please Show your Support by Subscribing to my YouTube Channel: Follow me on my Facebook Page: Follow me on Twitter: Tropical Tidbits - Satellite Images National Hurricane Center: Tropical Tidbits - Weather Models: Aircraft Recon Data:


Hurricane Hector continues to strengthen as the motion continues to the West at 12 mph. Satellite imagery suggests that an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) may have finished and therefore the eye could slowly clear out indicating that Hector is strengthening. The Latest model guidance may continue to keep Hector on a westerly track as Subtropical ridging to the north we'll hopefully keep Hector on this track so Hawaii can spare from any significant landfall witch with Lava would not be good at all. More Details are in the video. For the Latest Updates possible. Please Consider on Subscribing, Dropping a Like, and Leaving a comment. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Support my YouTube Channel to get the latest: Follow me on Facebook: Follow me on Twitter: Tropical Tidbits - Models Visible GOES 16 Satellite: National Hurricane center: Current Storm Information:


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